Modelling the Closure of Eraring

Analysis for Green Energy Markets and IEEFA

IEEFA and Green Energy Markets engaged ITP to conduct a study to examine the effect of a NSW government proposal to delay the retirement of the ageing Eraring Power station, from its scheduled date of 2025.


openCEM was used to run scenarios with a range of retiring dates for Eraring from 2025 to 2028 inclusive and to compare the difference in outcomes out to 2034 for NSW and the NEM. The study included sensitivities that considered delays in large scale PV and wind generation due to industry wide challenges in connecting RE generation to the NEM, identifying which generators would take the market share of Eraring, and the effect on system wide costs and the reliability standard. The study found (see report here) that the NEM can maintain the reliability standard without the need to extend the retirement date of Eraring, and that a combination of large-scale generation and storage, combined with an ongoing strong growth in DER resources would achieve the same outcomes at a lower cost.

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