NSW Electricity Distributors Energy Forecasts

Review of Post Modelling Adjustments

ITP Renewables assisted Energy Efficient Strategies in a study commissioned by Ausgrid, Endeavour Energy and Essential Energy to provide an independent assessment of solar PV adjustments made to the modelled 2013 NSW energy forecasts.

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The electricity distributors forecast future energy consumption using a range of analytical tools, including econometric models. A range of post modelling adjustments are made to these model outputs to include impacts that are not adequately captured by the traditional forecasting tools. ITP Renewables was responsible for the PV forecasts. Extensive market analysis, review of literature and modelling was used to develop a range of new post modelling adjustments for the NSW electricity distributors.

The recommended PV adjustments were dependent on a range of government and utility policy settings as well as market developments, but were 1.4 to 3 times higher than the original electricity distributors post modelling adjustments.